Run #87

8/25/2026, 8:25:01 AM · cron · ok

AGL.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Uptrend is present but weak (3m momentum only +2.34%) and RSI is elevated at 73.8. Signals are not strong enough to justify a new position.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 8.57,
  "sma20": 8.315,
  "sma50": 8.206,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 3.06,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 4.44,
  "rsi14": 73.8,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 24.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 4.27,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 2.34,
  "range_position_52w": 0.39
}

BHP.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Solid momentum and trend, but price is at 1.0 of its 52-week range with RSI at 71.8, meaning it is at fresh highs and overbought. Entering at the top of the range offers limited upside cushion; prefer waiting for a pullback.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 67.67,
  "sma20": 63.019,
  "sma50": 60.985,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 7.38,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 10.96,
  "rsi14": 71.8,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 13.98,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 11.76,
  "range_position_52w": 1
}

COH.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Strong momentum but RSI at 72.7 with very high volatility (52.8%) after a 41.52% three-month run makes this an extended entry. Risk/reward is unfavourable within a 30-day window.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 137.84,
  "sma20": 129.637,
  "sma50": 123.209,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 6.33,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 11.88,
  "rsi14": 72.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 52.8,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 14.98,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 41.52,
  "range_position_52w": 0.23
}

CSL.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

RSI at 87.8 is extremely overbought and price is 21.69% above its 20-day SMA after a 45% one-month move. This is a parabolic, highly extended condition with severe reversion risk—unsuitable for a conservative entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 173.64,
  "sma20": 142.691,
  "sma50": 128.111,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 21.69,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 35.54,
  "rsi14": 87.8,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 40.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 45.28,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 77.93,
  "range_position_52w": 0.65
}

DGT.AX AVOID (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is below both SMAs with weak RSI (37.0), negative momentum and high volatility (52.6%). Weak trend and elevated risk argue against a position.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 2.53,
  "sma20": 2.685,
  "sma50": 2.587,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -5.79,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -2.21,
  "rsi14": 37,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 52.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -4.89,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -3.34,
  "range_position_52w": 0.65
}

FMG.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is below both SMAs with negative momentum (3m -18.69%) and sits at 0.01 of its 52-week range, indicating a persistent downtrend. No basis for a long entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 17.71,
  "sma20": 18.065,
  "sma50": 18.598,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.97,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -4.77,
  "rsi14": 40,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -5.29,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -18.69,
  "range_position_52w": 0.01
}

GMG.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Downtrend below both SMAs with an oversold RSI of 27.3 and negative momentum across timeframes. Oversold alone is not a buy signal without trend confirmation.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 27.8,
  "sma20": 29.467,
  "sma50": 30.059,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -5.66,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -7.51,
  "rsi14": 27.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -6.02,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -9.23,
  "range_position_52w": 0.31
}

LYC.AX AVOID (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is essentially flat versus its 50-day SMA (+0.16%) with negative 3-month momentum and very high volatility (56.8%). Mixed and weak signals warrant no action.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 16.59,
  "sma20": 15.824,
  "sma50": 16.563,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 4.84,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 0.16,
  "rsi14": 67,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 56.8,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 13.01,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -12.45,
  "range_position_52w": 0.45
}

MAQ.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Clear downtrend below both SMAs, negative 3-month momentum (-17.58%) and near its 52-week low (0.07). No basis for a long entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 59.5,
  "sma20": 62.055,
  "sma50": 65.435,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -4.12,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -9.07,
  "rsi14": 27.9,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 36,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -4.63,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -17.58,
  "range_position_52w": 0.07
}

NST.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Very strong momentum but RSI at 75.7 combined with extreme volatility (55.3%) makes this a stretched, high-risk entry. The 9.89% gap above the 20-day SMA leaves little margin for a conservative stop.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 24.54,
  "sma20": 22.331,
  "sma50": 21.129,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 9.89,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 16.14,
  "rsi14": 75.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 55.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 21.19,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 34.84,
  "range_position_52w": 0.51
}

NXT.AX AVOID (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is below both SMAs with a weak RSI (37.7) and negative 3-month momentum (-9.28%). The trend is unfavourable for a long.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 13.59,
  "sma20": 14.018,
  "sma50": 14.006,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -3.06,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -2.97,
  "rsi14": 37.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 43.7,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 2.72,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -9.28,
  "range_position_52w": 0.35
}

ORG.AX BUY (low)

Entry 11.6–11.86 · Target 12.809 · Stop 11.27 · Size 5%

Strong momentum (1m +11.47%, 3m +8.91%) with price above both SMAs and mid-range 52-week position (0.65) leaving room to run. RSI at 77.7 is overbought, so conviction and size are kept low; targets set to the framework's 8% gain and 5% stop. [risk rules clamped: target -> 12.809]

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 11.86,
  "sma20": 11.365,
  "sma50": 10.91,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 4.35,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 8.71,
  "rsi14": 77.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 23.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 11.47,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 8.91,
  "range_position_52w": 0.65
}

PDN.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is 16.75% above its 20-day SMA after a 30.71% one-month surge, with extreme annualised volatility of 67.6%. This is a highly extended, high-risk chase that conflicts with a conservative framework.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 11.96,
  "sma20": 10.244,
  "sma50": 9.827,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 16.75,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 21.7,
  "rsi14": 72.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 67.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 30.71,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 7.07,
  "range_position_52w": 0.66
}

PLS.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

A 27.23% one-month spike sits against deeply negative 3-month momentum (-18.41%) and very high volatility (59.1%), suggesting a volatile bounce rather than a durable trend. Too risky for this framework.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 5.14,
  "sma20": 4.666,
  "sma50": 4.798,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 10.15,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 7.13,
  "rsi14": 67.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 59.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 27.23,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -18.41,
  "range_position_52w": 0.66
}

PME.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Momentum is strong and RSI (57.5) is moderate, but annualised volatility of 54.1% makes a 5% stop likely to be triggered by noise. High-volatility profile does not fit the conservative framework.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 190.6,
  "sma20": 180.743,
  "sma50": 184.846,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 5.45,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 3.11,
  "rsi14": 57.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 54.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 16.83,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 46.41,
  "range_position_52w": 0.39
}

RIO.AX BUY (low)

Entry 175–179.29 · Target 193.63 · Stop 170.33 · Size 5%

Constructive trend above both SMAs with the least overbought RSI (61.3) among the strong movers and healthy 1-month momentum (+14.32%). Flat 3-month momentum tempers conviction, so size and stop are kept conservative per the framework.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 179.29,
  "sma20": 171.703,
  "sma50": 167.891,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 4.42,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 6.79,
  "rsi14": 61.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 14.32,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -0.6,
  "range_position_52w": 0.86
}

RMD.AX BUY (medium)

Entry 31.5–32.51 · Target 35.11 · Stop 30.88 · Size 7%

Balanced setup: price above both SMAs, healthy and consistent momentum (1m +12.54%, 3m +12.5%), and a non-overbought RSI of 56.9. Low 52-week range position (0.35) suggests room to run, making this the most reasonable risk-adjusted long.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 32.51,
  "sma20": 31.044,
  "sma50": 29.563,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 4.72,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 9.97,
  "rsi14": 56.9,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 12.54,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 12.5,
  "range_position_52w": 0.35
}

S32.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Decent momentum and a moderate RSI (58.9), but price is at 1.0 of its 52-week range with high volatility (40.3%). Entering at the top of the range is unattractive risk/reward; wait for consolidation.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 5.13,
  "sma20": 4.849,
  "sma50": 4.429,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 5.81,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 15.83,
  "rsi14": 58.9,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 40.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 13.5,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 9.85,
  "range_position_52w": 1
}

SHL.AX AVOID (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is below both SMAs with weak RSI (34.5) and negative 1-month momentum despite positive 3-month; signals are mixed and the near-term trend is down. No clear entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 20.44,
  "sma20": 22.177,
  "sma50": 21.461,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -7.83,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -4.76,
  "rsi14": 34.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 25.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -7.13,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 8.61,
  "range_position_52w": 0.4
}

STO.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

RSI of 79.9 is deeply overbought and the stock sits at 0.95 of its 52-week range, indicating stretched conditions with high pullback risk. Chasing here offers poor risk/reward within a 30-day horizon.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 8.15,
  "sma20": 7.825,
  "sma50": 7.518,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 4.15,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 8.4,
  "rsi14": 79.9,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.7,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 6.97,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 5.88,
  "range_position_52w": 0.95
}

TLX.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Modest trend (only 1.85% above 20-day SMA) with a neutral RSI (60.4) but extreme volatility of 57.2%. The tight edge over its moving averages combined with high volatility makes a controlled entry difficult.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 16.16,
  "sma20": 15.867,
  "sma50": 15.718,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 1.85,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 2.81,
  "rsi14": 60.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 57.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 11.68,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 24.02,
  "range_position_52w": 0.73
}

WDS.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is only 0.67% above the 20-day SMA with modest momentum (1m +2.2%) and neutral-to-elevated RSI (65.3). The uptrend over the 50-day is intact but near-term signals are weak, so this is a marginal setup better skipped.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 33,
  "sma20": 32.779,
  "sma50": 30.756,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.67,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 7.3,
  "rsi14": 65.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 30.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 2.2,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 7.67,
  "range_position_52w": 0.8
}

WHC.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

RSI of 83.9 is extremely overbought and 3-month momentum is negative (-6.42%) despite a sharp 1-month spike, suggesting an unsustainable move. High volatility (37.3%) compounds the risk.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 8.16,
  "sma20": 7.514,
  "sma50": 7.633,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 8.6,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 6.91,
  "rsi14": 83.9,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 37.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 14.45,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -6.42,
  "range_position_52w": 0.55
}

Portfolio note: Only three low-to-medium conviction buys are proposed (ORG, RIO, RMD), totalling ~17% of the portfolio and spanning energy, materials, and healthcare for some diversification; most names are either overbought at range highs or in downtrends, so remaining largely in cash is the prudent stance.