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Run #48 · 7/17/2026, 8:25:00 AM · cron · ok
| Ticker | Action | Conviction | Entry | Target | Stop | Size | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGL.AX | AVOID | low | — | — | — | — | Neutral RSI (52.6) and price near SMA20, but 3m momentum is deeply negative (-10.65%) and the stock is low in its 52w range (0.22). Signals are weak and offer no clear edge. |
| BHP.AX | HOLD | low | — | — | — | — | Price is modestly below both SMAs with weak 1m momentum, though 3m momentum is positive (+3.66%) and 52w range position is decent (0.71). Signals are mixed with no clear entry trigger, so waiting is warranted. |
| COH.AX | AVOID | low | — | — | — | — | Despite price above SMA50, 3m momentum is sharply negative (-28.86%), volatility is very high (51.5%), and the stock sits near its 52w low (0.13). Risk is skewed to the downside. |
| CSL.AX | HOLD | low | — | — | — | — | Price is well above SMA50 (+13.8%) with positive 1m momentum, but RSI 68.2 is near overbought, 3m momentum is negative (-9.99%) and 52w range position is very low (0.18). Mixed signals and an extended short-term move argue for patience. |
| DGT.AX | HOLD | low | — | — | — | — | Strong 3m momentum (+28.36%) and price above both SMAs are positive, but RSI 66.1 is elevated and volatility is very high (55.3%). The risk profile is too aggressive for a conservative entry despite the uptrend. |
| FMG.AX | AVOID | low | — | — | — | — | Price sits below SMA50 with negative 1m and 3m momentum and a weak RSI. No trend or reversal edge, so it is skipped. |
| GMG.AX | HOLD | low | — | — | — | — | RSI14 of 15.2 is extremely oversold which could precede a mean-reversion bounce, and volatility is moderate (27.6%). However price is still below both SMAs with negative momentum, so a reversal is unconfirmed and no entry is justified yet. |
| LYC.AX | AVOID | high | — | — | — | — | Deeply oversold RSI (19.3) but price well below both SMAs with strong negative momentum and very high volatility (57.8%). Oversold in a sharp downtrend is not a safe entry. |
| MAQ.AX | AVOID | medium | — | — | — | — | Price is 11% below SMA50 with strongly negative momentum and a low 52w range position (0.30). Oversold RSI does not offset the intact downtrend. |
| NST.AX | AVOID | medium | — | — | — | — | Downtrend with price below both SMAs, negative momentum (-18.68% 3m), very high volatility (54.8%) and a low 52w range position (0.26). Unsuitable for a conservative entry. |
| NXT.AX | AVOID | low | — | — | — | — | Price below both SMAs, weak RSI (34.1), sharply negative 1m momentum (-13.57%) and low 52w range position (0.28). No basis for a conservative long. |
| ORG.AX | AVOID | medium | — | — | — | — | Price is below both SMAs, momentum is negative over both windows (-2.05% 1m, -15.08% 3m), and the stock sits near the bottom of its 52w range (0.14). No trend or reversal confirmation present. |
| PDN.AX | AVOID | high | — | — | — | — | Steep downtrend with price 18.5% below SMA50, brutal momentum (-38% 3m) and extreme volatility (66.2%). This is a falling knife unsuitable for a conservative framework. |
| PLS.AX | AVOID | high | — | — | — | — | Severe downtrend: price 24% below SMA50, -26% momentum over both windows, RSI 25.5, and extreme volatility (64.5%). Clear falling knife to avoid. |
| PME.AX | HOLD | low | — | — | — | — | Strong 3m momentum (+31.55%) and price above SMA50 are attractive, but price has slipped below SMA20 and volatility is very high (51.6%). The pullback plus elevated risk warrants waiting for stabilisation. |
| RIO.AX | HOLD | low | — | — | — | — | RSI14 of 27.9 is oversold, which can precede a bounce, but price remains below both SMAs with negative momentum across both windows. Oversold alone is insufficient without trend confirmation, so no action. |
| RMD.AX | HOLD | low | — | — | — | — | Positive 1m momentum (+7.76%) and price near SMA50, but neutral RSI (45.7), negative 3m momentum and a very low 52w range position (0.15) leave the picture mixed. No clear trend edge. |
| S32.AX | AVOID | low | — | — | — | — | Below both SMAs with negative momentum and high volatility (39.2%). Neutral RSI offers no reversal signal; nothing actionable here. |
| SHL.AX | BUY | medium | 21.5–22 | 23.65 | 20.83 | 7% | SHL has the cleanest trend: price above both SMAs, positive momentum on both 1m (+9.13%) and 3m (+8.64%), RSI 64.2 (strong but not extreme) and the lowest volatility in the set (25.9%). Target and stop are set to the framework's 8%/5% bounds from entry. |
| STO.AX | BUY | low | 7.55–7.75 | 8.29 | 7.3 | 5% | STO shows a constructive setup: price above both SMAs, positive 1m (+5.21%) and 3m (+3.23%) momentum, and strong 52w range position (0.77). RSI14 at 68.8 is near overbought so conviction and size are kept low, with target/stop set to the framework's 8%/5% bounds. |
| TLX.AX | HOLD | low | — | — | — | — | Mildly positive momentum and price near SMA50, but price is below SMA20, RSI is weak (38.5) and volatility is extreme (58.7%). Mixed signals and high risk make this a skip. |
| WDS.AX | HOLD | low | — | — | — | — | Price is above both SMAs with positive 1m momentum, but RSI14 of 71.7 is overbought and 3m momentum is negative (-2.4%). Buying an extended, overbought name invites a marginal, poorly-timed entry, so waiting is preferable. |
| WHC.AX | AVOID | medium | — | — | — | — | Price is below both SMAs with negative momentum and elevated volatility (38.3%). RSI at 37 is weak but not oversold enough to signal a reversal; downtrend remains intact. |
Portfolio note: Only two low/medium-conviction buys (STO, SHL) are proposed for combined ~12% exposure, leaving substantial cash given the broadly weak, downtrending materials/energy complex; avoid concentrating in correlated commodity names.