Run #76

8/14/2026, 8:25:01 AM · cron · ok

AGL.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Short-term momentum is positive (1m 5.13%, above both SMAs) but 3m momentum is negative (-3.4%) and range position is low (0.39), giving conflicting signals. Mixed data favours no action.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 8.82,
  "sma20": 8.374,
  "sma50": 8.418,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 5.33,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 4.78,
  "rsi14": 64.8,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 24.7,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 5.13,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -3.4,
  "range_position_52w": 0.39
}

BHP.AX BUY (medium)

Entry 60.97–61.35 · Target 66.258 · Stop 58.28 · Size 8%

Price is above both SMAs with consistent positive momentum (1m 6.62%, 3m 4.51%) and a neutral RSI of 56.1 leaving room to run. Moderate volatility (28.4%) and strong 52w range position (0.84) support a constructive but measured entry. [risk rules clamped: target -> 66.258]

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 61.35,
  "sma20": 60.973,
  "sma50": 60.588,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.62,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 1.26,
  "rsi14": 56.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 6.62,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 4.51,
  "range_position_52w": 0.84
}

COH.AX AVOID (high)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

RSI at 84.4 is extremely overbought after a 40% 3m surge, with 52% volatility. The move is highly stretched and prone to sharp reversal within the hold horizon.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 133.6,
  "sma20": 122.218,
  "sma50": 118.615,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 9.31,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 12.63,
  "rsi14": 84.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 52.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 11.82,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 40.09,
  "range_position_52w": 0.2
}

CSL.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Momentum is strong (3m 38.31%) but RSI at 79.3 is heavily overbought and price is 14% above SMA50, indicating an extended move at high risk of pullback. Chasing here offers unfavourable near-term risk/reward.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 136.5,
  "sma20": 127.024,
  "sma50": 119.825,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 7.46,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 13.92,
  "rsi14": 79.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 40.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 10.69,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 38.31,
  "range_position_52w": 0.26
}

DGT.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Positive momentum (1m 7.25%, 3m 9.82%) and price above both SMAs are constructive, but very high volatility (54.6%) on a low-priced stock makes the fixed 5% stop noise-prone. Prefer to wait or observe.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 2.81,
  "sma20": 2.661,
  "sma50": 2.553,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 5.6,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 10.08,
  "rsi14": 64.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 54.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 7.25,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 9.82,
  "range_position_52w": 0.83
}

FMG.AX AVOID (high)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Clear downtrend: price below both SMAs, RSI 32.3 near oversold, sharply negative momentum (1m -6.52%, 3m -19.38%) and sitting at the 52-week low (0.0). No basis for a long entry.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 17.64,
  "sma20": 18.359,
  "sma50": 18.923,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -3.91,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -6.78,
  "rsi14": 32.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -6.52,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -19.38,
  "range_position_52w": 0
}

GMG.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price sits right on SMA20 and below SMA50 with flat momentum and neutral RSI (52). No clear trend direction, so no action is warranted.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 29.67,
  "sma20": 29.673,
  "sma50": 30.438,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.01,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -2.52,
  "rsi14": 52,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 0.88,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -2.74,
  "range_position_52w": 0.44
}

LYC.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price below SMA50 with negative 3m momentum (-9.71%) and very high volatility (57.9%). The recent uptick lacks trend confirmation, so risk outweighs reward.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 16.36,
  "sma20": 15.403,
  "sma50": 16.723,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 6.21,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -2.17,
  "rsi14": 65.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 57.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 2.96,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -9.71,
  "range_position_52w": 0.42
}

MAQ.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price is below SMA50 (-5.44%) with negative 3m momentum (-14.25%) and a low 52w range position (0.29). The overall trend is weak and unsupportive of a long entry.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 63.9,
  "sma20": 63.098,
  "sma50": 67.575,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 1.27,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -5.44,
  "rsi14": 53.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 35.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.28,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -14.25,
  "range_position_52w": 0.29
}

NST.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Strong momentum but RSI is nearly overbought (69.9) and volatility is very high (54.9%), making the fixed 5% stop vulnerable. The low 52w range position (0.37) despite the rally is inconsistent; waiting is safer.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 22.52,
  "sma20": 21.095,
  "sma50": 20.575,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 6.76,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 9.45,
  "rsi14": 69.9,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 54.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 17.05,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 13.39,
  "range_position_52w": 0.37
}

NXT.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price is above both SMAs with good 1m momentum (13.41%), but RSI at 69 approaches overbought and 3m momentum is weak (2.27%). Elevated volatility (43.3%) reduces conviction for a fresh entry.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 14.88,
  "sma20": 13.888,
  "sma50": 14.158,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 7.14,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 5.1,
  "rsi14": 69,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 43.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 13.41,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 2.27,
  "range_position_52w": 0.54
}

ORG.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

RSI at 84.5 is deeply overbought and price is 11% above SMA20, indicating a stretched move that risks near-term mean reversion. Entering here offers poor risk/reward within a 30-day horizon.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 12.07,
  "sma20": 10.873,
  "sma50": 10.764,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 11,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 12.14,
  "rsi14": 84.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 23.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 14.62,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 4.32,
  "range_position_52w": 0.73
}

PDN.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Extreme annualised volatility (67%) makes the fixed 5% stop highly likely to trigger on noise. Despite a strong 1m spike (20.31%), 3m momentum is negative (-4.7%), signalling an unstable, speculative move.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 10.13,
  "sma20": 9.668,
  "sma50": 9.709,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 4.77,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 4.34,
  "rsi14": 57.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 67,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 20.31,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -4.7,
  "range_position_52w": 0.46
}

PLS.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price is below SMA50 (-1.52%) and 3m momentum is deeply negative (-17.74%) despite a short-term bounce. RSI 70.9 overbought plus 58.8% volatility make this a poor risk/reward setup.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 4.87,
  "sma20": 4.358,
  "sma50": 4.945,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 11.75,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -1.52,
  "rsi14": 70.9,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 58.8,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 12.47,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -17.74,
  "range_position_52w": 0.61
}

PME.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Strong 3m momentum (37.31%) is offset by negative 1m momentum (-4.41%) and price below SMA50, signalling a loss of near-term steam. Very high volatility (52.2%) makes waiting the safer choice.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 178.86,
  "sma20": 172.412,
  "sma50": 180.753,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 3.74,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -1.05,
  "rsi14": 69.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 52.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -4.41,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 37.31,
  "range_position_52w": 0.34
}

RIO.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price is marginally below SMA50 (-0.83%) with negative 3m momentum (-4.59%) despite recent 1m strength. The trend signals conflict, so waiting for clearer confirmation is prudent.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 167.59,
  "sma20": 166.401,
  "sma50": 168.992,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.71,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -0.83,
  "rsi14": 59.6,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 5.91,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -4.59,
  "range_position_52w": 0.72
}

RMD.AX BUY (low)

Entry 29.76–32.03 · Target 34.59 · Stop 30.43 · Size 5%

Price is above both SMAs with strong, consistent momentum (1m and 3m both 11.41%) and moderate volatility (29.4%). RSI 69.8 is near overbought so a smaller position and disciplined stop are appropriate.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 32.03,
  "sma20": 29.757,
  "sma50": 29.062,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 7.64,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 10.21,
  "rsi14": 69.8,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 11.41,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 11.41,
  "range_position_52w": 0.32
}

S32.AX BUY (medium)

Entry 4.68–4.76 · Target 5.14 · Stop 4.52 · Size 6%

Strong and consistent momentum (1m 22.05%, 3m 17.24%) with price above both SMAs and RSI 61 still below overbought. High 52w range position (0.86) confirms the trend, though 40% volatility warrants a smaller position.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 4.76,
  "sma20": 4.682,
  "sma50": 4.365,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 1.67,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 9.05,
  "rsi14": 61,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 40.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 22.05,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 17.24,
  "range_position_52w": 0.86
}

SHL.AX BUY (medium)

Entry 21.94–22.37 · Target 24.16 · Stop 21.25 · Size 7%

Price is above both SMAs with solid 3m momentum (21.38%) and the lowest volatility in the set (26.4%), which supports a tighter risk profile. RSI 64.2 is elevated but not overbought, giving a reasonable entry. [risk rules clamped: target -> 24.16]

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 22.37,
  "sma20": 21.942,
  "sma50": 21.176,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 1.95,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 5.64,
  "rsi14": 64.2,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 26.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 2.24,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 21.38,
  "range_position_52w": 0.43
}

STO.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price sits above both moving averages with RSI 63.7 and near 52-week highs (0.9 range position), but 3m momentum is negative (-1.24%), signalling a stall. The elevated range position limits upside and mixed momentum favours waiting.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 7.99,
  "sma20": 7.813,
  "sma50": 7.597,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 2.26,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 5.17,
  "rsi14": 63.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.8,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 4.04,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -1.24,
  "range_position_52w": 0.9
}

TLX.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Momentum is strong but RSI at 76 is overbought and volatility is very high (56.7%), so the fixed 5% stop is likely to be hit on normal swings. Risk/reward is unfavourable at this extended level.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 16.73,
  "sma20": 15.291,
  "sma50": 15.309,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 9.41,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 9.28,
  "rsi14": 76,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 56.7,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 12.21,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 17.73,
  "range_position_52w": 0.79
}

WDS.AX BUY (low)

Entry 32.19–32.6 · Target 35.208 · Stop 30.97 · Size 5%

Price is above both SMA20 and SMA50 with positive 1m momentum (7.03%) and RSI at a healthy 60.5, not yet overbought. However 3m momentum is flat (0.99%), so the uptrend is recent; a modest position is warranted. Volatility (30%) is moderate for the sector. [risk rules clamped: target -> 35.208]

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 32.6,
  "sma20": 32.191,
  "sma50": 30.393,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 1.27,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 7.26,
  "rsi14": 60.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 30.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 7.03,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 0.99,
  "range_position_52w": 0.78
}

WHC.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price is below SMA50 (-1.17%) with negative 3m momentum (-5.64%) and high volatility (37.5%). The trend is unconvincing and the elevated volatility raises stop-out risk.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 7.69,
  "sma20": 7.427,
  "sma50": 7.781,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 3.54,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -1.17,
  "rsi14": 57.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 37.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 3.5,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -5.64,
  "range_position_52w": 0.43
}

Portfolio note: Recommended buys (BHP, S32, RMD, SHL, WDS) are spread across resources, healthcare and diagnostics with modest sizing well under the 10% cap; most other names were avoided due to overbought RSI, high volatility, or conflicting momentum, keeping overall exposure conservative.