Run #64

8/2/2026, 8:25:00 AM · cron · ok

AGL.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is below both SMAs, 3m momentum is deeply negative (-12.2%), and it sits near the bottom of its 52w range (0.17). No positive trigger to justify a long.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 8.28,
  "sma20": 8.326,
  "sma50": 8.464,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.55,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -2.18,
  "rsi14": 58.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 27.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.48,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -12.2,
  "range_position_52w": 0.17
}

BHP.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Positive 3m momentum (+10.2%) and high range position (0.81) are constructive, but price is essentially flat against SMA50 and 1m momentum is negative (-0.3%). The trend has stalled, warranting patience rather than entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 60.31,
  "sma20": 59.001,
  "sma50": 60.441,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 2.22,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -0.22,
  "rsi14": 56.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.31,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 10.22,
  "range_position_52w": 0.81
}

COH.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Strong 3m momentum (+20.6%) is offset by negative 1m momentum (-4.0%), a neutral RSI (47.6), price just below SMA20, and very high volatility (52.1%). The recent loss of momentum warrants caution.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 119.94,
  "sma20": 120.411,
  "sma50": 112.673,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.39,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 6.45,
  "rsi14": 47.6,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 52.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -4.02,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 20.58,
  "range_position_52w": 0.13
}

CSL.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price above SMA50 (+9.5%) is constructive but 1m and 3m momentum are near flat/negative and RSI is neutral (52.7). High volatility (40.1%) and a low range position (0.18) leave the setup inconclusive.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 123.06,
  "sma20": 121.956,
  "sma50": 112.356,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.91,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 9.53,
  "rsi14": 52.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 40.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 1.03,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -1.09,
  "range_position_52w": 0.18
}

DGT.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Positive momentum (+5.4% 1m, +10.2% 3m) is encouraging but price is just below SMA20 with a neutral RSI (48.1) and very high volatility (55.4%). Signals are too soft and noisy for entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 2.54,
  "sma20": 2.571,
  "sma50": 2.516,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.19,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 0.96,
  "rsi14": 48.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 55.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 5.39,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 10.2,
  "range_position_52w": 0.54
}

FMG.AX AVOID (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price below both SMAs, negative 3m momentum (-7.5%), and low range position (0.29) indicate a weak trend with no bullish catalyst in the data.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 18.51,
  "sma20": 18.682,
  "sma50": 19.707,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.92,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -6.07,
  "rsi14": 45,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 0.82,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -7.54,
  "range_position_52w": 0.29
}

GMG.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is roughly at SMA20 and below SMA50 with flat momentum and a mid-range 52w position. Neutral, non-actionable signals.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 29.77,
  "sma20": 29.578,
  "sma50": 30.605,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.65,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -2.73,
  "rsi14": 48.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -3.28,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 0.47,
  "range_position_52w": 0.45
}

LYC.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Deeply oversold (RSI 23.3) but in a strong downtrend with momentum -22.7% (1m) and -24.1% (3m) and very high volatility (57.9%). Oversold does not equal a reversal; no entry justified.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 14.09,
  "sma20": 15.753,
  "sma50": 17.334,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -10.56,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -18.71,
  "rsi14": 23.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 57.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -22.67,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -24.12,
  "range_position_52w": 0.31
}

MAQ.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Strong downtrend with price 13.6% below SMA50, RSI 26.1 in oversold territory, negative momentum, and lowest range position in the set (0.12). No stabilisation signal present.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 60.4,
  "sma20": 64.001,
  "sma50": 69.932,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -5.63,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -13.63,
  "rsi14": 26.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 35.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -7.52,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -13.92,
  "range_position_52w": 0.12
}

NST.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Negative momentum on both timeframes, price below both SMAs, and very high volatility (55.1%). No trend edge and excessive noise risk for the 5% stop.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 19.9,
  "sma20": 20.174,
  "sma50": 20.091,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.36,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -0.95,
  "rsi14": 50,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 55.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -10.2,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -4.42,
  "range_position_52w": 0.3
}

NXT.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Neutral RSI (48.7) and flat 1m momentum, but price is below both SMAs and 3m momentum is negative. High volatility (43.1%) with no clear direction argues for waiting.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 13.36,
  "sma20": 13.503,
  "sma50": 14.371,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.06,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -7.03,
  "rsi14": 48.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 43.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.37,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -4.5,
  "range_position_52w": 0.31
}

ORG.AX AVOID (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

RSI14 at 70.7 is overbought while 3m momentum is sharply negative (-10.0%) and range position is low (0.23). The short-term bounce conflicts with the broader downtrend, so no clean setup exists.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 10.76,
  "sma20": 10.492,
  "sma50": 10.7,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 2.55,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 0.56,
  "rsi14": 70.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 23.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 3.86,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -9.96,
  "range_position_52w": 0.23
}

PDN.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Extreme annualised volatility (66.7%) combined with sharply negative 3m momentum (-22.3%) and price below SMA50 makes this unsuitable. The risk framework's 5% stop would be triggered by normal noise at this volatility.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 9.42,
  "sma20": 9.311,
  "sma50": 9.921,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 1.17,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -5.05,
  "rsi14": 47.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 66.7,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -5.61,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -22.34,
  "range_position_52w": 0.39
}

PLS.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Severe downtrend: price 21.9% below SMA50, momentum -20.7% (1m) and -31.3% (3m), and volatility of 62.4%. A falling knife that clearly violates the conservative mandate.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 4.15,
  "sma20": 4.398,
  "sma50": 5.315,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -5.65,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -21.92,
  "rsi14": 38.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 62.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -20.65,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -31.29,
  "range_position_52w": 0.5
}

PME.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Extremely oversold (RSI 13.5) after a -22.6% 1m collapse, with price 12% below SMA20 and 52% volatility. A sharp sell-off with no confirmation of a floor; catching this is inconsistent with the conservative mandate.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 162.21,
  "sma20": 184.241,
  "sma50": 173.231,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -11.96,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -6.36,
  "rsi14": 13.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 52.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -22.63,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 19.03,
  "range_position_52w": 0.26
}

RIO.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is above SMA20 but below SMA50 with flat momentum on both timeframes. Neutral RSI (59.1) and directionless signals do not support a conviction trade.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 170.57,
  "sma20": 163.663,
  "sma50": 174.366,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 4.22,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -2.18,
  "rsi14": 59.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.34,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -0.06,
  "range_position_52w": 0.73
}

RMD.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is above both SMAs with a firm RSI (59.4), but 1m momentum is negative (-2.3%) and 3m is essentially flat. Mildly positive but not convincing enough for a fresh position.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 29.79,
  "sma20": 29.085,
  "sma50": 28.468,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 2.43,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 4.64,
  "rsi14": 59.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 27.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -2.33,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 0.96,
  "range_position_52w": 0.21
}

S32.AX BUY (low)

Entry 4.48–4.6 · Target 4.93 · Stop 4.34 · Size 5%

S32 shows aligned positive signals: price above both SMAs, positive 1m (+9.9%) and 3m (+12.6%) momentum, and a strong 52w range position (0.86). RSI14 at 72.4 is overbought and volatility is elevated (39.9%), so conviction and size are kept low with a tight framework-defined stop.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 4.57,
  "sma20": 4.241,
  "sma50": 4.326,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 7.76,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 5.64,
  "rsi14": 72.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 39.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 9.86,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 12.56,
  "range_position_52w": 0.86
}

SHL.AX BUY (low)

Entry 21.6–21.9 · Target 23.61 · Stop 20.77 · Size 6%

SHL shows a clean, moderate uptrend: price above both SMAs, positive 1m (+2.9%) and 3m (+13.4%) momentum, healthy RSI (59.7 not overbought), and the lowest volatility in the actionable set (26.5%). Kept low conviction/size given a mid-range 52w position (0.38) and paper-account caution.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 21.86,
  "sma20": 21.57,
  "sma50": 20.514,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 1.34,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 6.56,
  "rsi14": 59.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 26.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 2.87,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 13.38,
  "range_position_52w": 0.38
}

STO.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price sits modestly above both SMAs with RSI14 at a neutral-to-firm 59.4 and decent 1m momentum (+10.4%). However 3m momentum is negative (-0.9%), making the trend inconsistent. Signals are too mixed for a fresh entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 7.84,
  "sma20": 7.671,
  "sma50": 7.612,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 2.2,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 3,
  "rsi14": 59.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 10.42,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -0.88,
  "range_position_52w": 0.84
}

TLX.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price below both SMAs, oversold RSI (29.9), negative momentum on both timeframes, and very high volatility (57.0%). Downtrend with no reversal signal.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 14.21,
  "sma20": 15.45,
  "sma50": 14.732,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -8.03,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -3.55,
  "rsi14": 29.9,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 57,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -15.82,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -7.91,
  "range_position_52w": 0.45
}

WDS.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Strong 1m momentum (+18.2%) but RSI14 at 76.1 is deeply overbought and price is 7.5% above SMA20, signalling stretched conditions. Weak 3m momentum (+0.7%) shows the move is very recent. Chasing an overbought spike violates the conservative, do-nothing preference.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 32.95,
  "sma20": 30.648,
  "sma50": 30.122,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 7.51,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 9.39,
  "rsi14": 76.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.7,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 18.23,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 0.73,
  "range_position_52w": 0.8
}

WHC.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Clear downtrend with price well below SMA20 (-6.4%) and SMA50 (-13.5%), weak RSI (37.5), and negative momentum across both windows. High volatility (37.6%) adds risk with no offsetting signal.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 6.98,
  "sma20": 7.458,
  "sma50": 8.069,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.41,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -13.5,
  "rsi14": 37.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 37.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -8.04,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -17.98,
  "range_position_52w": 0.24
}

Portfolio note: Only two low-conviction BUYs (S32, SHL) passed the conservative filter, and both are commodity/healthcare exposures totalling ~11% of the portfolio, leaving ample cash; the majority of the universe is in downtrends or overbought spikes, so patience is warranted.