Run #63

8/1/2026, 8:25:00 AM · cron · ok

AGL.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is below both SMAs, 3m momentum is deeply negative (-12.2%), and the stock languishes near the 17th percentile of its 52w range. No positive edge is present.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 8.28,
  "sma20": 8.326,
  "sma50": 8.464,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.55,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -2.18,
  "rsi14": 58.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 27.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.48,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -12.2,
  "range_position_52w": 0.17
}

BHP.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Positive 3m momentum (+10.2%) and near the top of its 52w range (0.81) are constructive, but price is essentially flat versus SMA50 and 1m momentum is negative. A neutral RSI (56.5) leaves no decisive entry signal.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 60.31,
  "sma20": 59.001,
  "sma50": 60.441,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 2.22,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -0.22,
  "rsi14": 56.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.31,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 10.22,
  "range_position_52w": 0.81
}

COH.AX AVOID (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Strong 3m momentum (+20.6%) is offset by negative 1m momentum (-4%), price below SMA20, and very high volatility (52.1%). The recent rollover and neutral RSI make this too uncertain to enter.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 119.94,
  "sma20": 120.411,
  "sma50": 112.673,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.39,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 6.45,
  "rsi14": 47.6,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 52.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -4.02,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 20.58,
  "range_position_52w": 0.13
}

CSL.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is above both SMAs (notably +9.5% over SMA50) but momentum is flat and RSI neutral at 52.7. High volatility (40.1%) and a low 52w range position (0.18) leave the picture ambiguous.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 123.06,
  "sma20": 121.956,
  "sma50": 112.356,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.91,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 9.53,
  "rsi14": 52.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 40.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 1.03,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -1.09,
  "range_position_52w": 0.18
}

DGT.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Positive 1m (+5.4%) and 3m (+10.2%) momentum are encouraging, but price sits below SMA20 and RSI is neutral (48.1). Very high volatility (55.4%) and mixed trend keep this off the buy list.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 2.54,
  "sma20": 2.571,
  "sma50": 2.516,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.19,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 0.96,
  "rsi14": 48.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 55.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 5.39,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 10.2,
  "range_position_52w": 0.54
}

FMG.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price below both SMAs, negative 3m momentum (-7.5%), and low 52w range position (0.29). RSI at 45 is neutral-bearish with no reversal confirmation.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 18.51,
  "sma20": 18.682,
  "sma50": 19.707,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.92,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -6.07,
  "rsi14": 45,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 0.82,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -7.54,
  "range_position_52w": 0.29
}

GMG.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price hovers around its SMA20 but below SMA50, with essentially flat momentum and a neutral RSI. Directionless signals warrant no action.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 29.77,
  "sma20": 29.578,
  "sma50": 30.605,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.65,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -2.73,
  "rsi14": 48.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -3.28,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 0.47,
  "range_position_52w": 0.45
}

LYC.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Deeply oversold (RSI 23.3) but in a strong downtrend, 18.7% below SMA50 with -22.7% 1m and -24.1% 3m momentum. Oversold alone with high volatility (57.9%) is not a buy signal in this framework.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 14.09,
  "sma20": 15.753,
  "sma50": 17.334,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -10.56,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -18.71,
  "rsi14": 23.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 57.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -22.67,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -24.12,
  "range_position_52w": 0.31
}

MAQ.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Downtrend with price 13.6% below SMA50, negative momentum across horizons, and bottom-decile 52w range position (0.12). RSI of 26 reflects weakness, not an actionable reversal.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 60.4,
  "sma20": 64.001,
  "sma50": 69.932,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -5.63,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -13.63,
  "rsi14": 26.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 35.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -7.52,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -13.92,
  "range_position_52w": 0.12
}

NST.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price below both SMAs, negative 1m momentum (-10.2%), and very high volatility (55.1%). Neutral RSI offers no edge for a conservative trade.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 19.9,
  "sma20": 20.174,
  "sma50": 20.091,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.36,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -0.95,
  "rsi14": 50,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 55.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -10.2,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -4.42,
  "range_position_52w": 0.3
}

NXT.AX AVOID (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price below both SMAs with negative 3m momentum and high volatility (43.1%). Neutral RSI leaves no constructive setup.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 13.36,
  "sma20": 13.503,
  "sma50": 14.371,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.06,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -7.03,
  "rsi14": 48.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 43.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.37,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -4.5,
  "range_position_52w": 0.31
}

ORG.AX AVOID (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

RSI is elevated at 70.7 while 3m momentum is sharply negative (-9.96%) and the stock sits at just the 23rd percentile of its 52w range. This mix of overbought short-term with weak medium-term trend is contradictory and unattractive.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 10.76,
  "sma20": 10.492,
  "sma50": 10.7,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 2.55,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 0.56,
  "rsi14": 70.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 23.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 3.86,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -9.96,
  "range_position_52w": 0.23
}

PDN.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Extremely high annualised volatility (66.7%) with sharply negative 3m momentum (-22.3%) and price below SMA50. The risk profile is far outside a conservative framework.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 9.42,
  "sma20": 9.311,
  "sma50": 9.921,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 1.17,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -5.05,
  "rsi14": 47.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 66.7,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -5.61,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -22.34,
  "range_position_52w": 0.39
}

PLS.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Severe downtrend: price 22% below SMA50, 1m momentum -20.7%, 3m -31.3%, and extreme volatility (62.4%). This is a falling knife to be avoided.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 4.15,
  "sma20": 4.398,
  "sma50": 5.315,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -5.65,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -21.92,
  "rsi14": 38.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 62.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -20.65,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -31.29,
  "range_position_52w": 0.5
}

PME.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Extremely oversold (RSI 13.5) after a -22.6% 1m collapse, with price well below SMA20 and high volatility (52.2%). Despite positive 3m momentum, catching this falling knife is inconsistent with a conservative approach.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 162.21,
  "sma20": 184.241,
  "sma50": 173.231,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -11.96,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -6.36,
  "rsi14": 13.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 52.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -22.63,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 19.03,
  "range_position_52w": 0.26
}

RIO.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is above SMA20 but below SMA50, with flat 1m and 3m momentum. Signals are balanced and directionless, warranting no action.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 170.57,
  "sma20": 163.663,
  "sma50": 174.366,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 4.22,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -2.18,
  "rsi14": 59.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.34,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -0.06,
  "range_position_52w": 0.73
}

RMD.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Modestly above both SMAs with a neutral RSI (59.4), but 1m momentum is negative and 3m barely positive. Signals are too weak for a conviction entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 29.79,
  "sma20": 29.085,
  "sma50": 28.468,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 2.43,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 4.64,
  "rsi14": 59.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 27.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -2.33,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 0.96,
  "range_position_52w": 0.21
}

S32.AX BUY (low)

Entry 4.48–4.6 · Target 4.94 · Stop 4.34 · Size 5%

S32 shows an aligned uptrend: price above both SMAs (+7.8%/+5.6%), positive 1m (+9.9%) and 3m (+12.6%) momentum, and top-decile 52w range position (0.86). RSI of 72.4 is overbought so conviction and sizing are kept low, with target and stop set to the framework's 8%/5% bounds. High volatility (39.9%) justifies a reduced position.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 4.57,
  "sma20": 4.241,
  "sma50": 4.326,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 7.76,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 5.64,
  "rsi14": 72.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 39.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 9.86,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 12.56,
  "range_position_52w": 0.86
}

SHL.AX BUY (low)

Entry 21.6–22 · Target 23.61 · Stop 20.77 · Size 6%

SHL shows a consistent uptrend: price above both SMAs (+1.3%/+6.6%), positive 1m (+2.9%) and 3m (+13.4%) momentum, and a non-overbought RSI of 59.7. Relatively contained volatility (26.5%) supports a modest position, with target/stop at the framework's 8%/5% bounds.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 21.86,
  "sma20": 21.57,
  "sma50": 20.514,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 1.34,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 6.56,
  "rsi14": 59.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 26.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 2.87,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 13.38,
  "range_position_52w": 0.38
}

STO.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is modestly above both SMAs with a neutral-to-positive RSI of 59.4 and healthy 1m momentum (+10.4%). However 3m momentum is slightly negative (-0.88%), making the trend uncommitted. The signal is not strong enough to justify a new entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 7.84,
  "sma20": 7.671,
  "sma50": 7.612,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 2.2,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 3,
  "rsi14": 59.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 10.42,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -0.88,
  "range_position_52w": 0.84
}

TLX.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price below both SMAs, RSI 29.9 amid a sharp -15.8% 1m decline, and very high volatility (57%). No stabilisation signal supports an entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 14.21,
  "sma20": 15.45,
  "sma50": 14.732,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -8.03,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -3.55,
  "rsi14": 29.9,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 57,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -15.82,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -7.91,
  "range_position_52w": 0.45
}

WDS.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Strong 1m momentum (+18.2%) but RSI14 at 76.1 is deeply overbought and price is 7.5%/9.4% above its SMAs, signalling stretched conditions. 3m momentum is flat (+0.73%), suggesting the recent run may be exhausted and prone to mean reversion. Chasing here violates the conservative framework.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 32.95,
  "sma20": 30.648,
  "sma50": 30.122,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 7.51,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 9.39,
  "rsi14": 76.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.7,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 18.23,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 0.73,
  "range_position_52w": 0.8
}

WHC.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Clear downtrend: price 6.4% below SMA20 and 13.5% below SMA50, with negative 1m (-8%) and 3m (-18%) momentum. High volatility (37.6%) compounds the risk. Nothing here supports a long entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 6.98,
  "sma20": 7.458,
  "sma50": 8.069,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.41,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -13.5,
  "rsi14": 37.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 37.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -8.04,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -17.98,
  "range_position_52w": 0.24
}

Portfolio note: Only two low-conviction, uptrending names (S32, SHL) qualify for small positions totalling ~11% of capital, both in the materials/healthcare space; the vast majority of the universe shows downtrends, overbought extremes, or extreme volatility that favour staying in cash.