Run #34

7/3/2026, 8:25:01 AM · cron · ok

AGL.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

RSI of 26.9 is oversold and price is only mildly below SMA20, but 3m momentum (-15%) and a low 52-week position (0.19) show a persistent downtrend. Oversold alone is insufficient without a stabilisation signal.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 8.32,
  "sma20": 8.509,
  "sma50": 8.846,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -2.22,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -5.95,
  "rsi14": 26.9,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 27.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -2.12,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -15.45,
  "range_position_52w": 0.19
}

BHP.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Positive 3m momentum (+14%), price above SMA50 and a strong 52-week position (0.83) are constructive, but RSI 28.7 and negative short-term momentum indicate a near-term pullback. Signals are conflicting, so waiting for stabilisation is prudent.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 60.5,
  "sma20": 61.207,
  "sma50": 59.839,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.15,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 1.11,
  "rsi14": 28.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 27.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -3.66,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 14.32,
  "range_position_52w": 0.83
}

COH.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

RSI 77.1 is strongly overbought and price is 21% above SMA50 after a +31% 1m spike, but 3m momentum is -27.8% and range position just 0.16. This is a sharp countertrend rally with high volatility, making entry too risky.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 124.96,
  "sma20": 112.504,
  "sma50": 103.264,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 11.07,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 21.01,
  "rsi14": 77.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 51.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 31.4,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -27.81,
  "range_position_52w": 0.16
}

CSL.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

RSI of 74.7 is overbought after a +31.6% 1m surge, yet 3m momentum is negative (-13%) and the 52-week range position is only 0.17. This looks like a stretched bounce within a longer downtrend, presenting poor risk/reward for a fresh entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 121.81,
  "sma20": 110.927,
  "sma50": 108.929,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 9.81,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 11.83,
  "rsi14": 74.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 39.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 31.56,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -13.19,
  "range_position_52w": 0.17
}

DGT.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Very strong 3m momentum (+44%) but flat near-term action, a neutral RSI of 45.7, and extreme 55.9% volatility. The signals are mixed and the high volatility makes the tight stop framework unreliable.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 2.41,
  "sma20": 2.445,
  "sma50": 2.494,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.44,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -3.36,
  "rsi14": 45.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 55.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -2.85,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 44.3,
  "range_position_52w": 0.46
}

FMG.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is 11% below SMA50 with -12.6% 1m momentum and RSI 17.6. Although deeply oversold, the strong downtrend on all timeframes offers no reversal confirmation, making entry speculative.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 18.36,
  "sma20": 19.626,
  "sma50": 20.663,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.45,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -11.15,
  "rsi14": 17.6,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -12.65,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -11.22,
  "range_position_52w": 0.4
}

GMG.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Strong 3m momentum (+17.8%) and price essentially at SMA50 are supportive, but a soft RSI of 36.7 and mild recent weakness show consolidation. The setup is neutral, so waiting for a clearer trend is preferable.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 30.78,
  "sma20": 31.499,
  "sma50": 30.814,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -2.28,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -0.11,
  "rsi14": 36.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 27.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.95,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 17.81,
  "range_position_52w": 0.54
}

LYC.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is roughly at its SMA20 with a neutral RSI of 54.2, but 3m momentum is negative and volatility is very high at 59.7%. Signals are mixed with no clear edge, and the volatility undermines the tight stop.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 18.22,
  "sma20": 18.072,
  "sma50": 18.59,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.82,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -1.99,
  "rsi14": 54.2,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 59.7,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -2.62,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -10.25,
  "range_position_52w": 0.72
}

MAQ.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is 11% below both SMAs with -16.6% 1m momentum and RSI 24.7. The sharp decline and low 52-week position (0.36) indicate an active downtrend without a reversal signal.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 65.31,
  "sma20": 73.43,
  "sma50": 73.547,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -11.06,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -11.2,
  "rsi14": 24.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 36.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -16.59,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 1.37,
  "range_position_52w": 0.36
}

NST.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is above both SMAs with positive 1m momentum (+8.7%) and a neutral RSI of 57.2, which is constructive. However, 55% annualised volatility makes the 5% stop vulnerable to noise, so the risk profile is unattractive despite the uptrend.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 22.16,
  "sma20": 20.216,
  "sma50": 20.389,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 9.62,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 8.68,
  "rsi14": 57.2,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 55.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 8.68,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -0.85,
  "range_position_52w": 0.44
}

NXT.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Steep -18% 1m momentum and price ~9% below both SMAs signal a sharp near-term breakdown, despite positive 3m momentum. High volatility and a weak 52-week position (0.32) argue against entry.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 13.41,
  "sma20": 14.731,
  "sma50": 14.773,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -8.97,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -9.23,
  "rsi14": 33.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 41,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -18.08,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 6.43,
  "range_position_52w": 0.32
}

ORG.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is below both SMAs with -19% 3m momentum and a 52-week range position of just 0.03, indicating it is near its yearly low. The downtrend is well established and there is no reversal confirmation.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 10.36,
  "sma20": 10.845,
  "sma50": 11.194,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -4.47,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -7.45,
  "rsi14": 38.9,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 23.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -4.52,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -19,
  "range_position_52w": 0.03
}

PDN.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Extreme 66% annualised volatility means a 5% stop would likely be triggered by noise alone. Momentum is negative and price is well below SMA50, so the risk/reward is unfavourable within the given framework.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 9.98,
  "sma20": 9.884,
  "sma50": 10.887,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.97,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -8.33,
  "rsi14": 43,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 66.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -8.27,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -12.99,
  "range_position_52w": 0.45
}

PLS.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is 13% below SMA50, RSI 24.7, -14.8% 1m momentum, and extreme 64% volatility. This combination of active decline and high noise makes any entry inconsistent with the conservative risk framework.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 5.23,
  "sma20": 5.686,
  "sma50": 6.008,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -8.02,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -12.96,
  "rsi14": 24.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 64.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -14.82,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 0.77,
  "range_position_52w": 0.71
}

PME.AX AVOID (high)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

RSI of 92.5 is extremely overbought with price 38% above SMA50 after a +71.9% 3m run. Chasing this parabolic move with 51% volatility is inconsistent with a conservative, tight-stop framework.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 209.65,
  "sma20": 178.896,
  "sma50": 151.989,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 17.19,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 37.94,
  "rsi14": 92.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 51.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 31.66,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 71.87,
  "range_position_52w": 0.46
}

RIO.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

RSI of 16.8 is deeply oversold and 3m momentum is marginally positive with a healthy 52-week range position (0.74). However, the sharp -9% 1m drop below both SMAs shows active selling; a bounce is possible but unconfirmed.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 171.16,
  "sma20": 178.219,
  "sma50": 179.886,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -3.96,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -4.85,
  "rsi14": 16.8,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 27.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -9,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 2.86,
  "range_position_52w": 0.74
}

RMD.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price is above both SMAs with strong +15% 1m momentum and moderate volatility (26.6%), which is constructive. However, RSI of 66.5 is elevated and 3m momentum is negative, so entering after a sharp run risks buying near a short-term peak.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 30.5,
  "sma20": 28.105,
  "sma50": 28.463,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 8.52,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 7.16,
  "rsi14": 66.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 26.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 15.09,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -5.78,
  "range_position_52w": 0.24
}

S32.AX AVOID (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Negative momentum on all timeframes and price below both SMAs, combined with high 38.9% volatility. RSI 38 is neutral-soft with no clear reversal, so a marginal trade is not justified.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 4.16,
  "sma20": 4.23,
  "sma50": 4.31,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.65,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -3.48,
  "rsi14": 38,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 38.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -12.42,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -8.57,
  "range_position_52w": 0.69
}

SHL.AX BUY (low)

Entry 20.83–21.25 · Target 22.95 · Stop 20.19 · Size 5%

SHL shows a coherent uptrend: price above both SMAs, positive 1m (+11.5%) and 3m (+9.1%) momentum, and the lowest volatility in the set (25.6%), making the 5% stop workable. RSI of 70.5 is elevated so this is a modest, low-conviction position with target set to the 8% framework return and stop at 5%.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 21.25,
  "sma20": 20.232,
  "sma50": 19.568,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 5.03,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 8.6,
  "rsi14": 70.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 25.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 11.49,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 9.09,
  "range_position_52w": 0.31
}

STO.AX HOLD (low)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

RSI of 31.6 approaches oversold, but price remains below both moving averages with negative momentum on all timeframes. Signals are mixed rather than a confirmed bounce, so waiting is preferable to a marginal trade.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 7.1,
  "sma20": 7.417,
  "sma50": 7.674,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -4.27,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -7.48,
  "rsi14": 31.6,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -9.78,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -12.24,
  "range_position_52w": 0.53
}

TLX.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Momentum is strongly positive but RSI 80.5 is deeply overbought and price is 16% above SMA50, with very high 58.7% volatility. Entering after such an extended run and with a stop-vulnerable volatility profile is not justified.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 16.88,
  "sma20": 14.863,
  "sma50": 14.473,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 13.57,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 16.63,
  "rsi14": 80.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 58.7,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 30.95,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 24.3,
  "range_position_52w": 0.49
}

WDS.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Price sits below both SMA20 (-4.4%) and SMA50 (-8.9%) with strongly negative 1m (-11%) and 3m (-22%) momentum. RSI of 35.6 is soft but not oversold enough to signal a reliable reversal. Trend is clearly down, so no entry is warranted.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 27.87,
  "sma20": 29.156,
  "sma50": 30.599,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -4.41,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -8.92,
  "rsi14": 35.6,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -11.04,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -22.15,
  "range_position_52w": 0.45
}

WHC.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry · Target · Stop · Size

Sharp -20% 1m momentum, price 8%+ below both SMAs, RSI 25.8 and high 37.8% volatility present a falling-knife profile. The elevated volatility makes any entry risky relative to the 5% stop framework.

Signals at recommendation time
{
  "last_price": 7.59,
  "sma20": 8.287,
  "sma50": 8.326,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -8.42,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -8.84,
  "rsi14": 25.8,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 37.8,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -20.36,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -16.13,
  "range_position_52w": 0.45
}

Portfolio note: The vast majority of names are either in active downtrends (miners/energy) or overbought countertrend spikes (healthcare), so the conservative stance is to stay largely in cash; only SHL offers a modest low-conviction trend entry, keeping single-name exposure well below the 10% cap.