Run #22

6/21/2026, 8:25:01 AM · cron · ok

AGL.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price is only marginally below SMA20 with a neutral RSI of 51.4, but momentum remains negative and it sits near 52-week lows (range 0.29). Signals are too mixed to justify a position.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 8.58,
  "sma20": 8.624,
  "sma50": 9.064,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.52,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -5.34,
  "rsi14": 51.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 27.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -4.88,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -7.04,
  "range_position_52w": 0.29
}

BHP.AX BUY (medium)

Entry 60.5–61.8 · Target 66.31 · Stop 58.33 · Size 8%

Price is above SMA50 (+4%) with strong positive momentum over 1m (+3.9%) and 3m (+29.3%), and sits near the top of its 52-week range (0.87). The minor pullback below SMA20 offers a reasonable entry within a confirmed uptrend, with moderate volatility (28.3%).

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 61.4,
  "sma20": 62.279,
  "sma50": 59.025,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.41,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 4.02,
  "rsi14": 47.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 3.89,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 29.34,
  "range_position_52w": 0.87
}

COH.AX AVOID (high)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Overbought RSI of 76.2 and price 15.5% above SMA20 after a 1m spike (+21.9%), but 3m momentum is sharply negative (-28.2%) near 52-week lows with very high volatility (50.9%). This is a volatile dead-cat-bounce risk, not a conservative buy.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 118.14,
  "sma20": 102.254,
  "sma50": 110.916,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 15.54,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 6.51,
  "rsi14": 76.2,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 50.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 21.93,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -28.23,
  "range_position_52w": 0.13
}

CSL.AX AVOID (high)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

RSI of 80.4 is extremely overbought and price is 15.3% above SMA20 after a sharp 1m surge (+16.3%), yet 3m momentum is deeply negative (-16%) near 52-week lows. This signals chase risk and a likely pullback rather than a sustainable entry.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 116.32,
  "sma20": 100.911,
  "sma50": 112.945,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 15.27,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 2.99,
  "rsi14": 80.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 39,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 16.26,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -16.01,
  "range_position_52w": 0.14
}

DGT.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Strong 3m momentum (+46.6%) and price above both SMAs, but very high volatility (55.1%) and negative 1m momentum (-2.3%) show fading short-term strength. The risk profile is too elevated for the framework.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 2.61,
  "sma20": 2.564,
  "sma50": 2.456,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 1.79,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 6.25,
  "rsi14": 48.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 55.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -2.25,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 46.63,
  "range_position_52w": 0.47
}

FMG.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

RSI of 26.3 is oversold which could precede a bounce, but price is below both SMAs and 1m momentum is sharply negative (-9.1%). The conflicting signals favour waiting for confirmation.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 19.75,
  "sma20": 21.019,
  "sma50": 21.009,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.04,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -5.99,
  "rsi14": 26.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.7,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -9.07,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 4.17,
  "range_position_52w": 0.65
}

GMG.AX BUY (medium)

Entry 31–31.7 · Target 34.02 · Stop 29.93 · Size 8%

Price sits above both SMA20 and SMA50 with steady positive momentum (1m +2.1%, 3m +23.5%) and moderate volatility (27.5%). The constructive trend and contained volatility fit a conservative momentum entry.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 31.5,
  "sma20": 31.368,
  "sma50": 30.439,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.42,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 3.49,
  "rsi14": 48.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 27.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 2.11,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 23.53,
  "range_position_52w": 0.59
}

LYC.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

High volatility (59.6%) with negative momentum and price below both moving averages. RSI of 41 and weak signals offer no edge to compensate for the risk.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 18.18,
  "sma20": 18.356,
  "sma50": 19.017,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.96,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -4.4,
  "rsi14": 41.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 59.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -2.1,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -6.96,
  "range_position_52w": 0.72
}

MAQ.AX BUY (medium)

Entry 75–76.5 · Target 82.08 · Stop 72.2 · Size 7%

Price is above both SMAs with positive momentum (1m +2.7%, 3m +19.7%), a constructive RSI of 55, and sits near its 52-week high (0.89). Volatility is moderate-high (35.6%) so position size is kept modest.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 76,
  "sma20": 75.666,
  "sma50": 73.277,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.44,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 3.72,
  "rsi14": 55.2,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 35.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 2.69,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 19.69,
  "range_position_52w": 0.89
}

NST.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Positive momentum (1m +10.2%, 3m +12.8%) and price above SMA20, but very high volatility (53.3%) and a low 52-week range position (0.36) create uncertainty. The risk is too high for a conservative entry despite the bullish momentum.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 20.87,
  "sma20": 19.914,
  "sma50": 21.097,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 4.8,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -1.08,
  "rsi14": 59,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 53.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 10.19,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 12.81,
  "range_position_52w": 0.36
}

NXT.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price is above SMA50 (+3.9%) with positive momentum (1m +4%, 3m +18%), but a neutral RSI of 49 and elevated volatility (40.1%) leave the entry marginal. Waiting for stronger confirmation is prudent.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 15.18,
  "sma20": 15.225,
  "sma50": 14.607,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.29,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 3.92,
  "rsi14": 49.2,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 40.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 4.04,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 18.04,
  "range_position_52w": 0.58
}

ORG.AX AVOID (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Trading near its 52-week low (range position 0.21) with negative momentum and price below both SMAs. RSI of 45.8 is neutral, providing no compelling entry signal.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 10.75,
  "sma20": 10.861,
  "sma50": 11.51,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.02,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -6.6,
  "rsi14": 45.8,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 23.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -3.15,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -10.49,
  "range_position_52w": 0.21
}

PDN.AX AVOID (high)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Extreme annualised volatility (65.6%) with price well below both SMAs (-6% and -13.9%) and negative momentum. The risk profile is incompatible with a conservative framework.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 10.02,
  "sma20": 10.662,
  "sma50": 11.633,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.02,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -13.86,
  "rsi14": 40.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 65.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -4.11,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -7.05,
  "range_position_52w": 0.46
}

PLS.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Despite strong 3m momentum (+39%), extreme volatility (65.3%) and a recent drop below both SMAs with weak RSI (40) make this too risky for the framework. The short-term trend has turned negative.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 5.88,
  "sma20": 6.257,
  "sma50": 6.091,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.03,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -3.46,
  "rsi14": 40.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 65.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -4.55,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 39.01,
  "range_position_52w": 0.84
}

PME.AX AVOID (high)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

RSI of 87.5 is severely overbought with price 22% above SMA50 and an extreme 1m surge (+34.5%). Combined with very high volatility (51.3%), the risk of a sharp reversal makes this unsuitable for a conservative entry despite strong momentum.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 172.8,
  "sma20": 152.829,
  "sma50": 141.497,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 13.07,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 22.12,
  "rsi14": 87.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 51.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 34.52,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 43.93,
  "range_position_52w": 0.29
}

RIO.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Strong 3m momentum (+20.7%) and high range position (0.82) are positive, but the recent pullback below SMA20 (-4.5%) and a soft RSI of 41 with negative 1m momentum signal short-term weakness. Better to wait for a clearer trend resumption.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 177.37,
  "sma20": 185.782,
  "sma50": 179.881,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -4.53,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -1.4,
  "rsi14": 41,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -2.37,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 20.73,
  "range_position_52w": 0.82
}

RMD.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Trading at its 52-week low (range position 0.04) with price below both SMAs and weak momentum (1m -9.9%, 3m -16.8%). RSI of 36 and a persistent downtrend offer no entry signal.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 26.68,
  "sma20": 27.752,
  "sma50": 29.073,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -3.86,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -8.23,
  "rsi14": 36.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 25.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -9.86,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -16.78,
  "range_position_52w": 0.04
}

S32.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Deeply oversold RSI of 25 with positive 3m momentum (+3.8%) is interesting, but price is sharply below SMA20 (-9.1%) and volatility is high (38%). The risk of catching a falling knife outweighs the oversold signal.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 4.13,
  "sma20": 4.541,
  "sma50": 4.404,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -9.06,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -6.23,
  "rsi14": 25,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 38,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.24,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 3.77,
  "range_position_52w": 0.68
}

SHL.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price is modestly above both SMAs with positive 1m momentum (+7.7%) and moderate volatility (25.2%), but flat 3m momentum and a low 52-week range position (0.18) make the signal weak. A neutral RSI of 58 does not justify a position yet.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 20.05,
  "sma20": 19.444,
  "sma50": 19.497,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 3.12,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 2.84,
  "rsi14": 57.6,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 25.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 7.74,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -0.1,
  "range_position_52w": 0.18
}

STO.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

RSI of 31.4 is approaching oversold and could hint at a bounce, but price is below both moving averages and 1m momentum is sharply negative (-10.2%). Mixed/weak signals warrant waiting for stabilisation rather than catching a falling trend.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 7.3,
  "sma20": 7.77,
  "sma50": 7.78,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.05,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -6.17,
  "rsi14": 31.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -10.21,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -8.52,
  "range_position_52w": 0.62
}

TLX.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Overbought RSI of 72.6 with very high volatility (57.8%) and price extended above SMA20 (+8.1%). The elevated risk and stretched conditions outweigh the positive momentum.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 14.5,
  "sma20": 13.414,
  "sma50": 14.252,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 8.1,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 1.74,
  "rsi14": 72.6,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 57.8,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 2.55,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 13.73,
  "range_position_52w": 0.35
}

WDS.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price is below both SMA20 (-5.1%) and SMA50 (-7.8%) with negative momentum over 1m (-8.8%) and 3m (-14.7%). RSI of 37 is weak but not oversold enough to signal a clear reversal, and the trend is firmly down.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 29.03,
  "sma20": 30.597,
  "sma50": 31.488,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -5.12,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -7.8,
  "rsi14": 37,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -8.8,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -14.72,
  "range_position_52w": 0.53
}

WHC.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

High volatility (38.5%) combined with price below SMA20 (-6.9%) and weak 3m momentum (-12.3%). RSI of 39 and neutral signals do not justify the elevated risk.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 8.16,
  "sma20": 8.766,
  "sma50": 8.372,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.91,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -2.53,
  "rsi14": 39.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 38.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.49,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -12.26,
  "range_position_52w": 0.63
}

Portfolio note: Only three modest momentum-based buys (BHP, GMG, MAQ) are recommended, all large-cap with moderate volatility, leaving ample cash and avoiding concentration in any single sector. The broader resource/energy complex shows weak trends and several healthcare names are dangerously overbought, so caution and patience dominate this set.