Run #20

6/19/2026, 8:25:02 AM · cron · ok

AGL.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price hugging SMA20 with neutral RSI (51.4) but below SMA50 and negative momentum. Range position of 0.29 and lack of a clear directional signal warrant no action.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 8.58,
  "sma20": 8.624,
  "sma50": 9.064,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.52,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -5.34,
  "rsi14": 51.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 27.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -4.88,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -7.04,
  "range_position_52w": 0.29
}

BHP.AX BUY (medium)

Entry 60.5–61.4 · Target 66.31 · Stop 58.33 · Size 8%

Price is above SMA50 (+4.0%) with strong positive momentum (1m +3.9%, 3m +29.3%) and sits high in its 52w range (0.87). The minor dip below SMA20 (-1.4%) offers a reasonable entry within an uptrend at moderate volatility (28.3%).

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 61.4,
  "sma20": 62.279,
  "sma50": 59.025,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.41,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 4.02,
  "rsi14": 47.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 3.89,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 29.34,
  "range_position_52w": 0.87
}

COH.AX AVOID (high)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

RSI of 76.2 after a +21.9% 1m surge, but 3m momentum is steeply negative (-28.2%) and the 52w range position is very low (0.13). The overbought bounce within a strong downtrend and high volatility (50.9%) make this too risky.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 118.14,
  "sma20": 102.254,
  "sma50": 110.916,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 15.54,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 6.51,
  "rsi14": 76.2,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 50.9,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 21.93,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -28.23,
  "range_position_52w": 0.13
}

CSL.AX AVOID (high)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

RSI of 80.4 is severely overbought after a +16.3% 1m spike, yet 3m momentum is negative (-16%) and the 52w range position is very low (0.14). This looks like a sharp bounce within a downtrend; risk of a pullback is high.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 116.32,
  "sma20": 100.911,
  "sma50": 112.945,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 15.27,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 2.99,
  "rsi14": 80.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 39,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 16.26,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -16.01,
  "range_position_52w": 0.14
}

DGT.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Above both SMAs with very strong 3m momentum (+46.6%) but negative 1m momentum (-2.3%) and very high volatility (55.1%). The short-term stall plus volatility undermines a conservative entry; wait.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 2.61,
  "sma20": 2.564,
  "sma50": 2.456,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 1.79,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 6.25,
  "rsi14": 48.1,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 55.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -2.25,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 46.63,
  "range_position_52w": 0.47
}

FMG.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Below both SMAs with sharp negative 1m momentum (-9.1%) and very low RSI (26.3). Although oversold, the short-term trend is clearly down; no entry trigger present.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 19.75,
  "sma20": 21.019,
  "sma50": 21.009,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.04,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -5.99,
  "rsi14": 26.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.7,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -9.07,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 4.17,
  "range_position_52w": 0.65
}

GMG.AX BUY (medium)

Entry 31–31.5 · Target 34.02 · Stop 29.93 · Size 7%

Price is above both SMA20 and SMA50 with positive momentum (3m +23.5%) and moderate volatility (27.5%). Neutral RSI (48.4) leaves room to run, and the constructive trend with controlled volatility fits the risk framework.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 31.5,
  "sma20": 31.368,
  "sma50": 30.439,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.42,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 3.49,
  "rsi14": 48.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 27.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 2.11,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 23.53,
  "range_position_52w": 0.59
}

LYC.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Below both SMAs with negative momentum and very high volatility (59.6%). No bullish signal and the volatility undermines the tight stop-loss framework.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 18.18,
  "sma20": 18.356,
  "sma50": 19.017,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.96,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -4.4,
  "rsi14": 41.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 59.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -2.1,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -6.96,
  "range_position_52w": 0.72
}

MAQ.AX BUY (medium)

Entry 75–76 · Target 82.08 · Stop 72.2 · Size 7%

Above both moving averages with healthy momentum (3m +19.7%) and a high 52w range position (0.89). RSI of 55.2 is constructive without being overbought; volatility (35.6%) is elevated so position is kept moderate.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 76,
  "sma20": 75.666,
  "sma50": 73.277,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 0.44,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 3.72,
  "rsi14": 55.2,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 35.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 2.69,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 19.69,
  "range_position_52w": 0.89
}

NST.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Positive momentum (1m +10.2%, 3m +12.8%) and price above SMA20, but very high volatility (53.3%) and a low 52w range position (0.36) reduce conviction. The risk framework is hard to apply cleanly given the volatility; stand aside.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 20.87,
  "sma20": 19.914,
  "sma50": 21.097,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 4.8,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -1.08,
  "rsi14": 59,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 53.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 10.19,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 12.81,
  "range_position_52w": 0.36
}

NXT.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Above SMA50 (+3.9%) with positive momentum (3m +18%) but right at SMA20 with neutral RSI (49.2) and high volatility (40.1%). Signals are constructive but not strong enough to justify entry given the volatility.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 15.18,
  "sma20": 15.225,
  "sma50": 14.607,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -0.29,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 3.92,
  "rsi14": 49.2,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 40.1,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 4.04,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 18.04,
  "range_position_52w": 0.58
}

ORG.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Near SMA20 (-1.0%) but below SMA50 with negative 3m momentum (-10.5%) and a low 52w range position (0.21). Signals are mixed-to-weak with no clear trigger; standing aside.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 10.75,
  "sma20": 10.861,
  "sma50": 11.51,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -1.02,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -6.6,
  "rsi14": 45.8,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 23.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -3.15,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -10.49,
  "range_position_52w": 0.21
}

PDN.AX AVOID (high)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Below both SMAs (-13.9% vs SMA50) with extremely high annualised volatility (65.6%). The combination of downtrend and outsized volatility makes the stop-loss framework unworkable; avoid.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 10.02,
  "sma20": 10.662,
  "sma50": 11.633,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.02,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -13.86,
  "rsi14": 40.7,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 65.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -4.11,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -7.05,
  "range_position_52w": 0.46
}

PLS.AX AVOID (high)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Despite strong 3m momentum (+39%), price is below both SMAs with negative 1m momentum and extreme volatility (65.3%). The 5% stop would be triggered by routine noise; not suitable for a conservative entry.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 5.88,
  "sma20": 6.257,
  "sma50": 6.091,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.03,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -3.46,
  "rsi14": 40.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 65.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -4.55,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 39.01,
  "range_position_52w": 0.84
}

PME.AX AVOID (high)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

RSI of 87.5 is extremely overbought with price 22% above SMA50 and very high volatility (51.3%). Despite strong momentum, the stock is severely extended and the risk of a sharp mean-reversion is too high for a conservative entry.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 172.8,
  "sma20": 152.829,
  "sma50": 141.497,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 13.07,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 22.12,
  "rsi14": 87.5,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 51.3,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 34.52,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 43.93,
  "range_position_52w": 0.29
}

RIO.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Strong 3m momentum (+20.7%) and high 52w range position (0.82), but price is below SMA20 (-4.5%) with negative short-term momentum and RSI at 41. The short-term pullback is unconfirmed; wait for stabilisation above SMA20.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 177.37,
  "sma20": 185.782,
  "sma50": 179.881,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -4.53,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -1.4,
  "rsi14": 41,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -2.37,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 20.73,
  "range_position_52w": 0.82
}

RMD.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Below both SMAs with negative momentum (3m -16.8%) and sitting at the bottom of its 52w range (0.04). Clear downtrend with no reversal signal; avoid.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 26.68,
  "sma20": 27.752,
  "sma50": 29.073,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -3.86,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -8.23,
  "rsi14": 36.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 25.4,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -9.86,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -16.78,
  "range_position_52w": 0.04
}

S32.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Deeply below SMA20 (-9.1%) with RSI at 25 (oversold) and high volatility (38%). Mixed longer-term momentum but the sharp short-term breakdown with high volatility warrants avoidance.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 4.13,
  "sma20": 4.541,
  "sma50": 4.404,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -9.06,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -6.23,
  "rsi14": 25,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 38,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.24,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 3.77,
  "range_position_52w": 0.68
}

SHL.AX HOLD (low)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Modestly above both SMAs with positive 1m momentum (+7.7%) and the lowest volatility in the set (25.2%), but flat 3m momentum and low 52w range position (0.18). Signals are mildly positive but not decisive enough for a buy.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 20.05,
  "sma20": 19.444,
  "sma50": 19.497,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 3.12,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 2.84,
  "rsi14": 57.6,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 25.2,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 7.74,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -0.1,
  "range_position_52w": 0.18
}

STO.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Below both moving averages with deteriorating momentum (-10.2% 1m) and RSI at 31.4 indicating oversold but in a clear downtrend. No evidence of stabilisation; prefer to wait.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 7.3,
  "sma20": 7.77,
  "sma50": 7.78,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.05,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -6.17,
  "rsi14": 31.4,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 28,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -10.21,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -8.52,
  "range_position_52w": 0.62
}

TLX.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

RSI of 72.6 indicates overbought conditions and volatility is very high (57.8%). The tight 5% stop would be vulnerable to ordinary noise at this volatility, and the extended price reduces favourable risk/reward.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 14.5,
  "sma20": 13.414,
  "sma50": 14.252,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": 8.1,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": 1.74,
  "rsi14": 72.6,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 57.8,
  "momentum_1m_pct": 2.55,
  "momentum_3m_pct": 13.73,
  "range_position_52w": 0.35
}

WDS.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Price is below both SMA20 (-5.1%) and SMA50 (-7.8%) with negative 1m (-8.8%) and 3m (-14.7%) momentum. RSI of 37 is weak but not oversold enough to signal a reversal. The trend is clearly down with no confirmation of a bottom.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 29.03,
  "sma20": 30.597,
  "sma50": 31.488,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -5.12,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -7.8,
  "rsi14": 37,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 29.6,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -8.8,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -14.72,
  "range_position_52w": 0.53
}

WHC.AX AVOID (medium)

Entry — · Target — · Stop — · Size —

Below SMA20 (-6.9%) with weak RSI (39.3), negative 3m momentum (-12.3%) and very high volatility (38.5%). The combination of downtrend and high volatility is unfavourable for a conservative entry.

Signals at recommendation time

{
  "last_price": 8.16,
  "sma20": 8.766,
  "sma50": 8.372,
  "price_vs_sma20_pct": -6.91,
  "price_vs_sma50_pct": -2.53,
  "rsi14": 39.3,
  "annualised_volatility_pct": 38.5,
  "momentum_1m_pct": -0.49,
  "momentum_3m_pct": -12.26,
  "range_position_52w": 0.63
}

Portfolio note: Only three moderate-conviction buys (BHP, GMG, MAQ) are proposed, all in resources/property/tech with controlled volatility and confirmed uptrends; combined exposure is kept near 22% to preserve cash and avoid over-concentration. The majority of names are in downtrends or are overbought after sharp bounces, so caution and patience are warranted.